Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas exhibited a downward trend as it decelerated to 4.6 percent in May 2024 from 4.8 percent in April 2024. This brings the average inflation rate from January to May 2024 for this income group to 5.0 percent. Moreover, the regional IR for the bottom 30% income household was lower than the 5.3 percent national IR for the same income group in May 2024. In May 2023, the inflation rate was posted at 5.4 percent (Tables 1 and 2).

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The downward trend of the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households in May 2024 was primarily brought about by the slower IR in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 7.7 percent from 8.2 percent in the previous month. This was followed by alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 3.3 percent in May 2024 from 7.8 percent in April 2024. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services and health also contributed to the downtrend as they registered slower IRs in May 2024. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services recorded 2.6 percent IR in May 2024 from 2.9 percent in April 2024, while health posted 2.0 percent during the month in review from 2.1 percent in April 2024.

On the other hand, faster IRs were recorded in furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, transport, and recreation, sport and culture commodity groups at 2.5 percent, 2.3 percent, and 4.5 percent during the month, from 2.2 percent, 1.1 percent, and 4.4 percent in April 2024, respectively.

In addition, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels recorded slower annual price decrease at 3.7 percent during the month from an annual price decrease of 4.9 percent in the previous month.

The commodity groups of clothing and footwear, information and communication, education services, and restaurants and accommodation services, retained their previous month’s IRs at 1.0 percent, 0.2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, financial services maintained its 0.1 percent annual price decrease in April 2024.

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the May 2024 regional IR for the bottom 30% income households were the following:

a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 97.5 percent share or 4.48 percentage points; 
b. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 3.1 percent share or 0.14 percentage point; and 
c. Transport with 2.9 percent share or 0.13 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas likewise decreased to 8.1 percent in May 2024 from 8.6 percent in the previous month. In May 2023, food inflation was recorded at 7.1 percent (Table 3).

The decline of food IR was primarily due to the lower IR observed in rice at 23.2 percent in May 2024 from 25.3 percent in the previous month. The slower IR in milk, other dairy products and eggs at 3.6 percent during the month from 4.8 percent in April 2024 also contributed to the downward trend in food IR.

Moreover, slower IRs were also noted in corn, and flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals at 3.9 percent and 3.0 percent in May 2024 from 4.0 percent and 3.8 percent in April 2024, respectively.

In contrast, faster IRs were observed in fruits and nuts, and ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified at 11.1 percent and 5.8 percent during the month, from 9.6 percent and 4.0 percent in the previous month, respectively.

Furthermore, slower price decreases were noted in the following food groups:

a. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, -1.1 percent from -1.6 percent; 
b. Fish and other seafood, -2.5 percent from -2.8 percent; 
c. Oils and fats, -1.2 percent from -1.3 percent; 
d. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, -3.5 percent from -5.2 percent; and 
e. Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -2.0 percent from -2.4 percent.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 95.8 percent or 4.4 percentage points to the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income household in May 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 100.8 percent share or 8.2 percentage points; 
b. Fruits and nuts, with 3.6 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and 
c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, with 2.2 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

Relative to their IRs in April 2024, eight (8) regions registered lower IRs for the bottom 30% income households in May 2024, seven (7) regions registered higher IRs, while the remaining two (2) retained their previous month’s IRs. Eastern Visayas’ IR for the bottom 30% income household at 4.6 percent ranked fourth among the regions with low IR during the month in review. In May 2024, the highest IR for this income group was recorded in Zamboanga Peninsula at 6.3 percent, while the lowest IR was observed in Ilocos Region at 3.9 percent. (Figure 2 and Table 4).

Inflation Rate by Province

Relative to their IRs for the bottom 30% income households in April 2024, Leyte, Samar, Southern Leyte, and the Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of Tacloban recorded lower IRs in May 2024. On the other hand, Biliran, Eastern Samar, and Northern Samar registered higher IRs in May 2024. For this income group, Biliran registered the highest IR among the provinces at 6.9 percent. This was closely followed by Southern Leyte at 5.6 percent, Samar and Leyte both at 4.6 percent, and Eastern Samar at 4.4 percent. The lowest IR for this income group was noted in Northern Samar at 3.7 percent. Meanwhile, IR for the bottom 30% income households in Tacloban City was recorded at 5.3 percent in May 2024. (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

(SGD) WILMA A. PERANTE   
Regional Director