Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) in Eastern Visayas slowed down to 3.8 percent in January 2024 from 4.3 percent in December 2023. The regional IR was higher than the 2.8 percent national IR in January 2024. In January 2023, the regional IR was also higher at 6.9 percent (Table 1).

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation The downtrend in the regional IR in January 2024 was primarily brought about by the lower IR of the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 7.3 percent in January 2024 from 8.3 percent in the December 2023. This was followed by transport with a faster annual decline of 2.2 percent from an annual decline of 1.3 percent in December 2023. Restaurants and accommodation services, which registered lower IR during the month at 4.1 percent from 5.3 percent in December 2023, also 
contributed to the downtrend.

In addition, decreased IRs were also recorded in the following commodity groups 
during the month:
a. Personal care and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.9 percent from 3.4 percent;
b. Furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance, 5.7 percent from 6.3 percent;
c. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 7.3 percent from 7.8 percent;
d. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent;
e. Health, 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent; and
f. Recreation, sport, and culture, 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent.

On the other hand, information and communication registered higher IR in January 2024 at 0.5 percent from 0.3 percent in December 2023.

In addition, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels recorded slower annual decrease during the month at 2.0 percent from an annual decline of 2.6 percent in December 2023.

The index for education services retained its previous month’s IR at 1.4 percent, while financial services index remained at zero percent annual growth during the month (Table 3).

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the January 2024 regional IR were 
the following: 
a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 91.7 percent share or 3.5 percentage points;
b. Furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance with 5.3 percent share or 0.2 percentage point; and
c. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 5.1 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Food Inflation

The IR for food index decelerated to 7.5 percent in January 2024, from 8.7 percent in December 2023. The IR for food in January 2023 was higher at 7.6 percent (Table 3).

The deceleration of the IR for food in January 2024 was primarily brought about by the annual price decline in the index of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses at 14.5 percent during the month from 0.7 percent in December 2023. This was followed by fish and other seafood with an annual price decrease of 0.4 percent IR during the month from 5.5 percent IR in December 2023. Also contributing to the downtrend of food inflation was the slower IR in milk, other dairy products, and eggs in January 2024 at 7.0 percent from 8.7 percent in December 2023.

In addition, compared with their previous month’s IRs, slower IRs were noted in the 
following food groups during the month in review:
a. Fruits and nuts, 17.1 percent from 18.1 percent;
b. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 3.8 percent 
from 4.4 percent; 
c. Oils and Fats, 0.1 percent from 0.9 percent; and
d. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 
4.5 percent from 5.7 percent.

In contrast, compared with their previous month’s IRs, higher IRs were observed in the following indices:
a. Rice, 28.0 percent from 20.5 percent; and
b. Corn, 5.6 percent from 2.7 percent

Moreover, meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals recorded slower annual decline at 0.4 percent in January 2024 from an annual decrease of 0.7 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, sugar, confectionery and desserts retained its previous month’s IR at 0.7 percent.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 87.7 percent or 3.3 percentage points to the overall inflation in January 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:
a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 98.2 percent share or 7.4 percentage points;
b. Fruits and nuts, with 7.0 percent share or 0.5 percentage point; and
c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, with 5.4 percent share or 0.4 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

All regions recorded slower inflation rates during the month relative to their respective December 2023 inflation rates. Among the regions, Eastern Visayas’ IR at 3.8 percent ranked fourth among the regions with high IRs during the month in review. Davao Region recorded the highest IR at 4.4 percent, while Cagayan Valley and Ilocos Region registered the lowest IRs both at 1.5 percent (Figure 2 and Table 4).

Inflation Rate by Province

Relative to their IRs in December 2023, three (3) provinces recorded lower IRs in January 2024, namely: Eastern Samar, Leyte, and Samar including the Highly Urbanized City (HUC), Tacloban City. While the remaining three (3) provinces registered higher IRs. Among the provinces, Samar posted the highest IR at 5.6 percent in January 2024. Biliran’s IR came next at 4.9 percent, followed by Northern Samar at 4.0 percent, Eastern Samar at 3.5 percent, and Leyte at 3.3 percent. The lowest IR was noted in Southern Leyte at 2.6 percent (Figure 3 and Table 5).

Meanwhile, IR for Tacloban City, the lone HUC in the region, was recorded at 3.1 percent in January 2024, lower than its 3.6 percent IR last month (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.
BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.
DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month. 

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100. 

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes black-market prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc. 

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

SGD. WILMA A. PERANTE
Regional Director