Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas increased to 2.6 percent in October 2024, after two (2) consecutive months of deceleration. This brings the average inflation rate from January to October 2024 for this income group to 4.5 percent. Moreover, the regional IR for this income group was lower than the 3.4 percent national IR in October 2024. The region’s IR in October 2023 was higher at 5.0 percent (Tables 1 and 2).

Main Drivers of the Uptrend of the Regional Inflation

The main driver to the uptrend of the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households in October 2024 was the higher IR in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded at 3.1 percent from 2.7 percent in September 2024. The slower annual price decrease of transport commodity group at 1.7 percent in October 2024 from 2.8 percent annual price decrease in September 2024 also contributed to the increase of the regional IR for this income group. 
On the other hand, compared with their IRs in September 2024, the following commodity groups registered lower IRs during the month:

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent; 
b. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent; 
c. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 1.7 percent from 2.1 percent; 
d. Information and communication, 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent; 
e. Recreation, sport and culture, 3.6 percent from 4.0 percent; and 
f. Restaurants and accommodation services, 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their September 2024 IRs:

a. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent; 
b. Health, 1.9 percent; 
c. Education services, 12.7 percent; and 
d. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.0 percent.

Financial services likewise retained its 0.1 percent annual price decrease in September 2024.

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the October 2024 regional IR for the bottom 30% income households were the following:

a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 68.2 percent share or 1.8 percentage points; 
b. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels with 20.3 percent share or 0.5 percentage point; and 
c. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, with 3.5 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas increased to 3.3 percent in October 2024 from 2.7 percent in September 2024. In October 2023, food inflation was posted at 9.5 percent (Table 3).

The increase of food IR was primarily brought about by the higher IR observed in rice at 8.3 percent in October 2024 from its 6.9 percent in September 2024. Fruits and nuts also registered higher IR at 15.0 percent in October 2024 from 12.4 percent IR in the previous month. In addition, the slower price decrease of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 4.4 percent in October 2024 from 5.5 percent annual price decrease in September 2024 likewise contributed to the uptrend of the food IR.

In addition, higher IRs during the month were noted in meat and other parts of slaughtered animals at 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent in the previous month, and milk, other dairy products, and eggs at 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent in September 2024.

Moreover, slower annual price declines were observed in sugar, confectionery and desserts and oils and fats at 3.9 percent and 1.0 percent in October 2024 from annual price decreases of 4.9 percent and 1.1 percent in the previous month, respectively.

In contrast, compared with their previous month’s IRs, lower IRs were observed in the following food groups:

a. Corn, 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent; 
b. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and Other Cereals, 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent; and 
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 6.0 percent from 6.8 percent.

Moreover, fish and other seafood recorded faster annual price decrease at 3.1 percent in October 2024 from an annual price decrease of 2.2 percent in September 2024.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 65.7 percent or 1.7 percentage points to the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income household in October 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 98.7 percent share or 3.3 percentage points; 
b. Fruits and nuts, with 13.0 percent share or 0.4 percentage point; and 
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, with 5.5 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

In comparison with their IRs in September 2024, 14 regions registered higher IRs for the bottom 30% income households in October 2024, two (2) recorded lower IRs, while the remaining one (1) retained its previous month’s IR. Eastern Visayas’ IR for the bottom 30% income household at 2.6 percent ranked sixth among the regions with low IRs during the month in review. In October 2024, the highest IR for this income group was recorded in Western Visayas at 5.0 percent, while the lowest IR was observed in BARMM at 1.6 percent. (Figure 2 and Table 4)

Inflation Rate by Province

Relative to their IRs for the bottom 30% income households in September 2024, Biliran, Northern Samar, Samar, and Southern Leyte recorded higher IRs in October 2024. On the other hand, Eastern Samar, Leyte, and the lone Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of Tacloban, registered lower IRs during the month. For this income group, Biliran and Northern Samar registered the highest IR among the provinces both at 4.4 percent. This was followed by Leyte at 3.3 percent, Southern Leyte at 2.5 percent, and Eastern Samar at 1.1 percent. The lowest IR for this income group was noted in Samar at 1.0 percent. Meanwhile, IR for the bottom 30% income households in Tacloban City was recorded at 2.3 percent in October 2024. (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

Sgd. WILMA A. PERANTE      
Regional Director