Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas further declined to 2.4 percent in September 2024 from 4.5 percent in August 2024. This is the lowest IR for this income group since the 1.7 percent IR recorded in July 2020. This brings the average inflation rate from January to September 2024 for this income group to 4.7 percent. Moreover, the regional IR for this income group was lower than the 2.5 percent national IR in September 2024. The region’s IR in September 2023 was higher at 6.3 percent (Tables 1 and 2).

Main Drivers of the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The main driver of the downtrend of the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households in September 2024 was the IR in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages posted at 2.7 percent, lower than its 6.6 percent IR in August 2024. The faster price decrease of transport commodity group at 2.8 percent in September 2024 from 1.4 percent annual price decrease in August 2024 also contributed to the decline of the regional IR for this income group.

Moreover, lower IRs were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

a. Restaurants and accommodation services, 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent; 
b. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 2.1 percent from 2.3 percent; 
c. Recreation, sport and culture, 4.0 percent from 4.7 percent; 
d. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent; 
e. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent; and 
f. Education services, 12.7 percent from 13.2 percent.

On the other hand, compared to their IRs in August 2024, the following commodity groups recorded higher IRs during the month:

a. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 3.8 percent from 1.1 percent; 
b. Health, 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent; 
c. Information and communication, 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent; and 
d. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.0 percent from 1.8 percent.

Meanwhile, financial services maintained its 0.1 percent annual price decrease in August 2024.

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the September 2024 regional IR for the bottom 30% income households were the following: 
a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 65.2 percent share or 1.6 percentage points; 
b. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels withy 23.5 percent share or 0.6 percentage point; and 
c. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 4.0 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas likewise decreased to 2.7 percent in September 2024 from 6.9 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, food inflation was posted at 10.5 percent (Table 3).

The decline of food IR was primarily due to the lower IR observed in rice at 6.9 percent in September 2024 from its double-digit IR of 17.5 percent in August 2024. The annual price decrease of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 5.5 percent in September 2024 from 2.9 percent IR last month likewise contributed to the downtrend of the food IR. The commodity group of milk, other dairy products and eggs also recorded lower IR at 2.4 percent in September 2024 from 3.8 percent in August 2024.

In addition, lower IRs during the month were observed in the following food groups:

a. Meat and other parts of slaughtered animals, 1.0 percent from 1.5 percent; 
b. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 6.8 percent from 7.8 percent; and 
c. Fruits and nuts, 12.4 percent from 13.2 percent.

Moreover, sugar, confectionery and desserts recorded faster price decrease at 4.9 percent in September 2024 from an annual price decrease of 4.1 percent in the previous month.

In contrast, compared with their previous month’s IRs, higher IRs were observed in corn at 3.8 percent in September 2024 from 3.1 percent in August 2024. Furthermore, the commodity groups of fish and other seafood and oils and fats recorder slower price decrease at 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent in September 2024 from their annual price decreases of 3.7 percent and 1.2 percent in August 2024, respectively.

Meanwhile, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals retained its previous month’s IR at 2.0 percent.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 62.3 percent or 1.5 percentage points to the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income household in September 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 100.0 percent share or 2.7 percentage points; 
b. Fruits and nuts, with 12.7 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and 
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, with 7.4 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

In comparison to their IRs in August 2024, all of the regions registered lower IRs for the bottom 30% income households in September 2024. Eastern Visayas’ IR for the bottom 30% income household at 2.4 percent ranked seventh among the regions with high IR during the month in review. In September 2024, the highest IR for this income group was recorded in Western Visayas at 4.0 percent, while the lowest IR was observed in Ilocos Region at 0.6 percent (Figure 2 and Table 4).

Inflation Rate by Province

Similar to the regional trend, all provinces, including the lone Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of Tacloban, recorded lower IRs in September 2024 compared with their figures in August 2024. For this income group, Leyte registered the highest IR among the provinces at 3.7 percent. This was followed by Biliran at 2.8 percent, Eastern Samar at 2.6 percent, Southern Leyte at 1.7 percent, and Northern Samar at 0.7 percent. The lowest IR for this income group was noted in Samar at 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, IR for the bottom 30% income households in Tacloban City was recorded at 2.7 percent in September 2024 (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

Sgd. WILMA A. PERANTE     
Regional Director