Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas increased to 5.2 percent in June 2024 from 4.6 percent in May 2024. This brings the average inflation rate from January to June 2024 for this income group to 5.0 percent. Moreover, the regional IR for the bottom 30% income household was lower than the 5.5 percent national IR for the same income group in June 2024. In June 2023, the inflation rate was posted at 4.2 percent lower than the June 2024 regional IR. (Tables 1 and 2).

Main Drivers of the Upward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The main driver of the upward trend of the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households in June 2024 was the slower annual price decrease in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel at 1.0 percent from 3.7 percent annual price decrease in the previous month. The heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages with faster IR of 8.2 percent in June 2024 from 7.7 percent in May 2024 also contributed to the uptrend.

In addition, higher IRs were recorded in furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, and health at 2.6 percent and 2.1 percent in June 2024, from 2.5 percent and 2.1 percent in May 2024, respectively.

On the other hand, compared to their IRs in May 2024, the following commodity groups recorded lower IRs during the month:

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2. 9 percent from 3.3 percent;  
b. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 1.0 percent;  
c. Transport, 1.3 percent from 2.3 percent;  
d. Recreation, sport and culture, 4.3 percent from 4.5 percent; and  
e. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.1 percent from 2.6 percent.

The commodity groups of information and communication, education services, and restaurants and accommodation services, retained their previous month’s IRs at 0.2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, financial services maintained its 0.1 percent annual price decrease in May 2024.

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the June 2024 regional IR for the bottom 30% income households were the following:

a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 91.9 percent share or 4.78 percentage points;  
b. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 2.8 percent share or 0.14 percentage point; and  
c. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, with 1.9 percent share or 0.10 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas likewise increased to 8.7 percent in June 2024 from 8.1 percent in the previous month. In June 2023, food inflation was posted at 6.0 percent (Table 3).

The increase of food IR was primarily due to the annual price increase in meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 1.1 percent during the month from an annual price decline of 1.1 percent in the previous month. This was followed by vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses which recorded slower annual price decrease of 0.2 percent in June 2024 from 3.5 percent annual decline in the previous month. Fruits and nuts also contributed to the uptrend with aster IR of 14.7 percent in June 2024 from 11.1 percent in May 2024.

Moreover, faster IR was posted in ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified at 6.7 percent during the month from 5.8 percent in May 2024. In addition, fish and other seafood recorded slower annual price decrease at 2.4 percent in June 2024 from an annual decline of 2.5 percent in May 2024.

In contrast, compared with their previous month’s IRs, slower IRs were observed in the following food groups:

a. Rice, 22.9 percent from 23.2 percent;  
b. Flour, bread, and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 2.7 percent from 3.0 percent; and  
c. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 3.2 percent from 3.6 percent.

In addition, sugar, confectionery and desserts registered faster annual price decrease at 2.2 percent in June 2024 from 2.0 percent annual decrease in May 2024.  
Meanwhile, corn retained its previous month’s IR at 3.9 percent while oils and fats also maintained its previous month’s annual price decrease at 1.2 percent.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 90.6 percent or 4.7 percentage points to the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income household in June 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 94.7 percent share or 8.2 percentage points;  
b. Fruits and nuts, with 4.6 percent share or 0.4 percentage point; and  
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, with 2.2 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

In comparison to their IRs in May 2024, 10 regions registered higher IRs for the bottom 30% income households in June 2024, six (6) regions registered lower IRs, while the remaining one (1) retained its previous month’s IR. Eastern Visayas’ IR for the bottom 30% income household at 5.2 percent ranked sixth among the regions with low IR during the month in review. In June 2024, the highest IR for this income group was recorded in Central Visayas at 7.0 percent, while the lowest IR was observed in NCR at 3.5 percent. (Figure 2 and Table 4)

Inflation Rate by Province

Relative to their IRs for the bottom 30% income households in May 2024, Samar, Leyte, and the Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of Tacloban recorded higher IRs in June 2024. On the other hand, Biliran, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, and Southern Leyte registered lower IRs during the month. For this income group, Samar registered the highest IR among the provinces at 7.0 percent. This was followed by Biliran at 6.5 percent, Southern Leyte at 5.5 percent, Leyte at 5.2 percent, and Northern Samar at 3.6 percent. The lowest IR for this income group was noted in Eastern Samar at 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, IR for the bottom 30% income households in Tacloban City was recorded at 5.4 percent in June 2024. (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

(SGD) WILMA A. PERANTE       
Regional Director