Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas continued to exhibit a downward trend as it decelerated to 4.5 percent in March 2024 from 5.4 percent in February 2024. This brings the average inflation rate from January to March 2024 for this income group to 5.1 percent. Moreover, the regional IR for the bottom 30% income household was lower than the 4.6 percent national IR for the same income group in March 2024. In March 2023, the inflation rate was higher at 7.3 percent (Tables 1 and 2).

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The downward trend of the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households in March 2024 was primarily brought about by the lower IR in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 7.8 percent from 8.9 percent IR in the previous month. This faster annual decline in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 6.2 percent in March 2024 from 3.5 percent annual decrease in February 2024 also contributed to the downtrend of the IR for this income group. In addition, alcoholic beverages and tobacco exhibited slower IR at 8.7 percent in March 2024 from 10.3 percent in February 2024.

Moreover, lower IRs were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:

a. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 1.8 percent from 2.2 percent;
b. Health, 1.4 percent from 2.2 percent; and
c. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent.

On the other hand, the following commodity groups recorded higher IRs during the month:

a. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent;
b. Transport, 1.8 percent from 0.7 percent; and
c. Information and Communication, 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent.

The commodity groups of recreation, sport and culture, education services, and restaurants and accommodation services retained their previous month’s IR at 4.2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, financial services retained its 0.1 percent annual price decrease in February 2024.

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the March 2024 regional IR for the bottom 30% income households were the following:

a. Food and non – alcoholic beverages with 103.9 percent share or 4.68 percentage points;
b. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 5.1 percent share or 0.23 percentage point; and
c. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 3.3 percent share or 0.15 percentage point.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Eastern Visayas likewise slowed down to 8.3 percent in March 2024 from 9.2 percent in the previous month. In March 2023, food inflation was posted at 8.8 percent (Table 3).

The deceleration of the IR for food was primarily due to the lower IR observed in rice at 26.6 percent in March 2024 from 28.6 percent in the previous month. The faster annual price decrease in fish and other seafood at 4.7 percent from an annual price decrease of 1.5 percent in February 2024 also contributed to the decline of food IR. In addition, fruits and nuts also exhibited slower IR at 11.9 percent during the month from 15.4 percent in February 2024.

Moreover, slower IRs were posted in milk, other dairy products and eggs at 5.0 percent during the month from 5.5 percent in February 2024, and ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified at 3.4 percent in March 2024 from 2.4 percent in February 2024.

Faster annual declines were recorded in the following food groups during the month:

a. Sugar, confectionary and desserts, -2.5 percent from -0.5 percent;
b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, -2.2 percent from -2.0 percent; and
c. Oils and fats, -1.2 percent from -0.7 percent.

In contrast, compared with their previous month’s IRs, faster IRs were observed in the following food groups:

a. Corn, 4.9 percent from 4.1 percent; and
b. Flour, bread, and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.

In addition, vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses recorded slower annual price decrease in March 2024 at 7.8 percent from an annual price decrease of 12.3 percent in February 2024.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 101.5 percent or 4.6 percentage points to the regional inflation for the bottom 30% income household in March 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 108.2 percent share or 9.0 percentage points;
b. Fruits and nuts, with 3.6 percent share or 0.3 percentage point; and
c. Milk, other dairy products, and eggs, with 2.9 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

Relative to their IRs in the previous month, 12 regions registered higher IRs for the bottom 30% income households in March 2024. Meanwhile, five (5) regions exhibited lower IR for this month. Among the regions, Eastern Visayas’ IR for the bottom 30% income household further at 4.5 percent ranked seventh among the regions with low IRs during the month. Central Luzon recorded the highest IR for this income group in March 2024 at 6.0 percent while Central Visayas registered the lowest IR for this income group at 3.3 percent. (Figure 2 and Table 4).

Inflation Rate by Province

Relative to their IRs for the bottom 30% income households in February 2024, all provinces registered lower IRs in March 2024, except Leyte, which recorded higher IR. Meanwhile, Tacloban City, the lone Highly Urbanized City (HUC) in the region, retained its previous month’s IR. For this income group, Southern Leyte and Biliran posted the highest IR among the provinces both at 5.8 percent. This was followed by Samar at 5.4 percent, Leyte at 4.7 percent, and Northern Samar at 3.8 percent. The lowest IR for this income group was noted in Eastern Samar at 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, IR for the bottom 30% income households in Tacloban City was recorded at 5.4 percent in March 2024. (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The CPI for the bottom 30% income households is compiled by the PSA to measure the changes of prices of commodities commonly purchased by the families that belong to the bottom 30% income decile. The process of price collection and CPI computation is the same as that of the CPI for all income households. However, there is a separate market basket and weights for the CPI for the bottom 30% income households.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

SGD. WILMA A. PERANTE
Regional Director