Eastern Visayas

The Inflation Rate (IR) in Eastern Visayas slowed down further to 1.8 percent in September 2024. This is the lowest IR since the 1.5 percent IR recorded in Junex 2020. The IR in August 2024 was recorded at 3.3 percent. The region's average IR from January to September 2024 to 3.5 percent. Moreover, the regional IR was lower than the 1.9 percent national IR in September 2024. The regional IR in September 2023 was higher at 4.9 percent (Table 1 and 2).

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The downtrend in the regional IR in September 2024 was primarily influenced by the slower IR of the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 2.2 percent in September 2024 from 5.5 percent IR in August 2024. The faster annual price decline of the transport commodity group at 4.4 percent during the month from an annual price decrease of 1.8 percent in the August 2024 also contributed to the decline of the regional IR.

In addition, decreased IRs were also recorded in the following commodity groups:

a. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 2. 7 percent from 4.1 percent; 
b. Restaurants and accommodation services, 2.2 percent from 2.7 percent, 
c. Education services, 8.2 percent from 8.8 percent; 
d. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent; and 
e. Clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent;

In contrast, increased IRs were noted in the following commodity groups:

a. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 3.6 percent from 1.2 percent, 
b. Health, 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent; and 
c. Information and communication, 0.4 percent from 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the indices of recreation, sport and culture and personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services retained their previous month’s IRs at 2.4 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

The IR for financial services remained at zero percent during the month (Table 3).

Main Contributors to the Regional Inflation

The top three commodity groups that contributed to the September 2024 regional IR were the following:            

a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 54.8 percent share or 1.0 percentage point; 
b. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, with 34.6 percent share or 0.6 percentage point; and 
c. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 5.5 percent share or 0.1 percentage point.

Food Inflation

The IR for food index decreased to 2.2 percent in September 2024 from 5.7 percent in August 2024. The IR for food in September 2023 was higher at 9.6 percent (Table 3).

The decline of the IR for food in September 2024 was primarily influenced by the slower IR in rice at 7.1 percent during the month from its double-digit IR of 17.6 percent in August 2024. The price decrease of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 5.6 percent during the month from an IR of 3.2 percent from August 2024 also contributed to the downtrend of food IR. Moreover, milk, other dairy products and eggs registered slower IR at 2.4 percent in September 2024 from 3.6 percent in August 2024.

The following food groups also recorded slower IRs in September 2024:

a. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 0.9 percent from 1.4 percent; 
b. Fruit and nuts, at 11.8 percent from 13.3 percent, 
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, 5.2 percent from 5.9 percent; and 
d. Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent,

In addition, sugar confectionery and desserts recorded faster price decrease at 3.8 percent in September 2024 from its annual price decrease of 3.1 percent in August 2024.

In contrast, corn registered faster IR at 6.2 percent during the month from 5.5 percent in August 2024. Moreover, fish and other seafoods recorded slower price decrease at 3.0 percent in September 2024 from 4.2 percent in August 2024.

Meanwhile, oils and fats retained its previous month’s annual price decline at 1.1 percent.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation shared 51.4 percent or 0.9 percentage point to the overall inflation in September 2024. The food groups with the highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 101.9 percent share or 2.4 percentage points; 
b. Fruits and nuts, with 18.7 percent share or 0.4 percentage point; and 
c. Ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, with 8.3 percent share or 0.2 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

In comparison with their IRs in August 2024, all regions registered lower IRs in September 2024. Eastern Visayas’ IR at 1.8 percent ranked seventh among the regions with low IRs during the month in review and was at par with CALABARZON. In September 2024, Western Visayas recorded the highest IR at 3.4 percent while Ilocos Region registered the lowest IR at 0.6 percent (Figure 2 and Table 4).

Inflation Rate by Province/HUC

Relative to their IRs in August 2024, all the provinces in the region, including the lone Highly Urbanized City (HUC) of Tacloban, recorded lower IRs in September 2024. Among the provinces, Leyte posted the highest IR at 2.7 percent in September 2024. Biliran’s IR came next at 2.4 percent, followed by Eastern Samar at 1.9 percent, Southern Leyte at 1.7 percent, and Samar at 0.9 percent. The lowest IR among the provinces was registered in Northern Samar at 0.7 percent.  Meanwhile, Tacloban City, registered 1.4 percent IR in September 2024 (Figure 3 and Table 5).

TECHNICAL NOTES

The current CPI series is 2018-based. The rebasing to 2018 is the 12th base period and 11th rebasing for CPI. The five steps involved in the rebasing/computing of CPI are as follows: (1) identification of the base year (2) determination of the market basket (3) determination of household consumption patterns/weights (4) monitoring of prices of items in the basket and (5) computation of CPI.

The 2018-based CPI series uses the same method of computation as the 2012-based CPI series, which is chained Laspeyres formula.

BASE YEAR - is a period at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series. The CPI is rebased from 2012 to 2018.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) - is an indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

DEFLATION - is the decline in prices for goods and services that happens when the inflation rate dips below zero percent.

INFLATION RATE (IR) - is the annual rate of change or the year-on-year changes in CPI. It indicates how fast or how slow price changes over two time periods (year-on-year). Contrary to common knowledge, low inflation does not necessarily connote that prices of commodities are falling. It means that prices continue to increase but at a slower rate.

MARKET BASKET - refers to a sample of goods and services commonly purchased by the households. The market basket for CPI was updated using the results of the 2021 Survey of Key Informants (SKI). The commodities included in the 2018-based CPI market basket were the modal commodities which were considered as the most commonly purchased/availed commodities by the households. The commodities in the 2018-based CPI market basket were grouped/classified according to the 2020 Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (PCOICOP).

MONITORING OF PRICES - involves establishing baseline information for the prices of the items in the base year and monitoring the prices of the items on a regular basis. Data collection for the CPI is done by the provincial office twice a month, except for petroleum products which are monitored on a weekly basis, every Friday. First collection phase is done during the first five days of the month while the second phase is on the 15th to 17th day of the month.

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO (PPP) - gives an indication of the real value of peso (how much it is worth) in a given period relative to its value in the base period. It is computed as the reciprocal of CPI multiplied by 100.

RETAIL PRICE - refers to the actual price at which retailers sell a commodity on spot or earliest delivery, usually in small quantities for consumption and not for resale. It is confined to transactions on cash basis in the free market and excludes underground prices and prices of commodities that are on sale as in summer sales, anniversary sales, Christmas sales, etc.

WEIGHTS - is a value attached to a commodity or group of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. The weights for the 2018-based CPI were derived from the expenditure data of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES). The weight for each commodity/group of commodities is the proportion of the expenditure commodity/group of commodities to the total national expenditure. The sum of the weights of the commodity groups at the national level is equal to 100.

Sgd. WILMA A. PERANTE   
Regional Director